How high will inflation get in 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The contract is currently priced at 100 cents on Polygon, reflecting absolute certainty that year-on-year CPI inflation will exceed a specified threshold at some point during 2026. This pricing suggests traders view the threshold as virtually certain to breach, though the specific percentage level determines whether this represents a genuine consensus or an artefact of how the market was initialised. Settlement hinges on BLS monthly releases throughout 2026, with resolution occurring as data drops rather than at year-end, creating rolling exposure to inflation prints across all twelve months.

Historical context matters considerably here. The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate-hiking cycle from mid-2022 through 2023 brought headline CPI from 9.1% year-on-year down to 3.4% by December 2023, then further to 2.4% by December 2024. Comparable disinflationary episodes suggest momentum can persist, though core inflation—stripping volatile food and energy—has proven stickier. The 100% crowd probability likely reflects confidence that even modest inflation thresholds will materialise, given base effects and the difficulty of achieving sustained sub-2% readings across a full calendar year.

Traders should monitor Federal Reserve communications and labour market data releases, particularly the monthly employment reports which precede CPI announcements. Energy price movements warrant close attention given their outsized impact on headline figures. The December 2025 CPI print, released in January 2026, will provide the first settlement-eligible data point and may reset market expectations if inflation surprises materially in either direction. Any unexpected economic shock—geopolitical disruption to oil supplies, significant fiscal stimulus, or labour market deterioration—could shift inflation trajectories mid-year.

Methodology

This page reviews How high will inflation get in 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.