Highest temperature in NYC on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with Polymarket currently pricing all temperature brackets at effectively zero probability across the board. This reflects the market's nascent state rather than any consensus view on what New York's weather will deliver that day. The settlement mechanism ties directly to Wunderground's historical data for KLGA, converting the single daily high into a categorical outcome—a straightforward physical measurement with no ambiguity once the day passes.

Historical June temperatures at LaGuardia show considerable variability. The airport's records indicate June highs typically range from the mid-70s to low 80s Fahrenheit, though heat waves have pushed readings into the upper 80s and occasionally low 90s. The 1994 heat wave saw June temperatures exceed 90°F at LaGuardia on multiple days, whilst cooler Junes have seen highs stall in the low 70s. This spread of roughly 20 degrees across the historical record suggests that without seasonal forecasts, traders face genuine uncertainty about which temperature bracket will ultimately resolve.

The relevant catalyst is the National Weather Service's extended forecast, which typically becomes reliable five to seven days before 9 June 2026. Atlantic weather patterns, particularly the position of the jet stream and any tropical systems in early June, will determine whether the day breaks warm or remains seasonally moderate. Traders should monitor NOAA's Climate Prediction Center updates in late May and early June for signals about whether high-pressure systems or cooler maritime influences will dominate the Northeast corridor that week.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.