France vs. Iraq - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **France vs. Iraq - Exact Score** at **3% YES** today, which implies a very small chance that the final regulation-time score lands on the contract’s specified outcome rather than “Any Other Score”. The market settles on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time only, so extra time and penalties do not matter; the trade is therefore tied to the state of play at full-time, not to who advances.[4][2]

That low probability fits a market shaped by a favourite-versus-longshot profile and by the natural dispersion of football scorelines. Bookmakers currently have France strongly favoured on the moneyline, with ESPN showing France around -1200 and Iraq about +3000, while the total is centred near 3.5 goals.[2] In that context, the exact-score market is usually dominated by a handful of common finals such as 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1, with most other combinations falling into “Any Other Score”; head-to-head records are limited, so the price is driven more by current team strength and scoring expectations than by historical meeting data.[5][7]

A trader watching this contract should focus on lineup announcements, late injury news, and any tactical changes that affect goal expectancy, because those inputs can move an exact-score market far more than a simple win/lose market. FIFA’s match centre confirms the scheduled kickoff and provides live team information close to start time, while sportsbooks are already shading total-goals pricing around the same game, which is useful for cross-checking whether the 3% implied probability looks rich or cheap relative to the likely score distribution.[4][1][2] On Polymarket, the position is held in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, so the practical question is not just who wins, but whether the final number pair matches one of the listed score outcomes exactly.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.