Starmer out by...?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Keir Starmer has held the office of Prime Minister since Labour's general election victory in July 2024. This market prices the probability that he ceases to be PM at any point between 2 February and 31 December 2025 at effectively zero, with conditional YES tokens trading near worthless on Polygon. The settlement hinges on any announcement of resignation or removal before year-end, regardless of the effective date—meaning even a pre-announced departure in early 2026 would resolve the contract to YES if declared before 31 December 2025.

Historical precedent suggests sitting Prime Ministers rarely depart mid-term absent severe political crisis. Tony Blair served a full decade; Gordon Brown completed his three-year transition; David Cameron departed only after the 2016 referendum shock. The last involuntary removal occurred in 1990 when Conservative MPs forced Margaret Thatcher out. Labour's internal stability has held since Starmer took the leadership in 2020, and he commands a substantial parliamentary majority of 137 seats following the July 2024 election, substantially reducing the mechanical risk of a confidence vote.

Traders monitoring this contract should track quarterly economic data releases, particularly inflation and growth figures due through 2025, alongside any major policy reversals that might trigger backbench rebellion. The fiscal outlook and public sector pay negotiations represent near-term pressure points. The next scheduled general election is not until 2029, eliminating that forcing event. Any significant polling collapse or unexpected by-election losses could shift sentiment, though current Labour polling remains competitive despite post-election fatigue.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.