Japan vs. Sweden

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Japan vs Sweden at **28% YES** on USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, so the market is treating a Japan win as a clear underdog outcome rather than a coin-flip. That price sits below the ESPN consensus lines for the same group-stage fixture, where Japan were listed around +110 and Sweden around +105 on the moneyline, with the draw at +225 to +250, implying a relatively balanced contest rather than a dominant favourite.[1]

For context, this kind of pricing is usually read against recent international form and head-to-head history rather than the World Cup label alone. Japan have had the stronger tournament profile in recent cycles, including wins over higher-ranked opposition, but Sweden have also shown they can keep games tight, and a 1–1 meeting between the sides in 2002 is a reminder that these teams can neutralise each other.[2][4] A 28% contract price is therefore consistent with a market that sees Japan as live, but still dependent on the specific match-up and whether the game opens up early.[1][2]

The main trader catalysts are the usual pre-match items: official squads, injuries, suspensions, and the confirmed starting line-ups, plus any late schedule or venue updates before the 25 June kick-off in Dallas.[2][3] On Polymarket, the contract settles from the match outcome at the closing window, so attention stays on whether Japan can turn selection news into a better in-play position before 23:00Z on 25 June, while Sweden’s odds will react to anything that improves their defensive shape or attacking availability.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.