Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Zero Tenacity–summer bear BO3 at **0% YES** right now, with the contract settling on the winner of the European Pro League Playoffs match and paying in **USDC on Polygon** through conditional tokens if a result is recorded. The market also has a clear fallback: if the match is not completed and no winner is determined, or if it is abandoned, delayed beyond the seven-day window, or ends in a tie, it can resolve to 50-50 rather than to either team.[2][4]

The historical frame here is straightforward: Zero Tenacity entered the event as the stronger side on standings, finishing the group stage unbeaten at 5-0 with a 14-1 map record, while summer bear were below them at 2-3 with an 8-map total, which is the sort of pre-playoff gap that usually keeps a lower-bracket upset priced as unlikely until a live result flips the tape.[2] Comparable live listings also show this fixture has already been tracked as a completed BO3, with Zero Tenacity winning 2-1, which matters because Polymarket contracts are resolved off the actual match outcome rather than pre-match expectation.[1][4]

For traders, the main catalysts are operational rather than theoretical: official bracket updates, whether the scheduled lower-bracket quarterfinal actually starts on time, and whether the organiser changes the play date or format. Liquipedia and live match trackers both placed the series inside the European Pro League Season 38 playoffs, while real-time score pages and match listings show the game state can move quickly from scheduled to live to final, which is exactly the kind of dependency that decides whether a prediction market settles to a side or to the neutral 50-50 outcome.[2][3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.