Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Germany vs Côte d’Ivoire is priced at **39% YES** on Polymarket, which points to the market expecting a minority chance that the relevant “more markets” condition is met before settlement at 2026-06-20T20:00:00Z. On Polymarket, this is a live on-chain position: users trade **USDC** on **Polygon**, and the contract resolves through conditional tokens rather than by direct exposure to the football result itself.

That 39% level is best read against a match that is effectively fixed in timing and venue, but still open to late information. FIFA’s match centre lists Germany v Côte d’Ivoire for 20 June at 20:00, while ESPN’s market page shows Germany as the pre-match favourite, implying that the base football setup is already priced in elsewhere and that this contract is more about whether additional market outcomes or linked conditions appear before the deadline. In comparable World Cup markets, prices on side contracts can move sharply even when the underlying fixture looks stable, because traders are reacting to late roster changes, official confirmations, or market-definition mechanics rather than to the scoreline alone.[2][4]

The main catalysts are administrative rather than sporting: any FIFA or venue announcement that changes kick-off logistics, broadcast availability, squad status, or ticketing can feed into related market pricing. Goal’s latest ticket update says last-minute sales are still live on FIFA’s official portal, the resale marketplace remains open until one hour before kick-off, and FIFA has used variable pricing for this tournament, all of which can affect attention and liquidity around the match window.[1] Traders also watch whether the fixture remains on schedule and whether any dependency in the market rules is triggered by line-up news, group-stage qualification context, or an official change to the match environment before settlement.[1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.