Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: IC.A (-1.5) vs Subtop De France (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-3.5) vs Subtop De France (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-3.5) vs Subtop De France (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-6.5) vs Subtop De France (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-3.5) vs Subtop De France (+3.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-6.5) vs Subtop De France (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Academy (-12.5) vs Subtop De France (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
Market context
Inner Circle Academy have already secured a 2–0 victory over Subtop De France in their CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Series #5 Group B match, confirming the outcome before the settlement window closes on 15 July 2026 [1]. The contract on Polymarket now trades at 100% YES for Inner Circle Academy, reflecting the completed result rather than a speculative probability. On Polygon, this conditional token is settled in USDC, meaning the payout is deterministic once the official match result is verified by the platform’s oracle.
Historically, prediction markets for esports matches that have already concluded resolve instantly once the result is ingested, with no further volatility. Similar cases in Counter-Strike 2 markets show that when a team wins decisively—such as Inner Circle Academy’s 2–0 against SAW in the European Pro League Series 8 Play-In—the market locks at 100% immediately [2]. The 100% price here is not an inference but a mechanical certainty, as the match outcome is already recorded and unambiguous.
Traders should monitor the official CCT Europe results page for any post-match corrections or disqualifications, though no such dependencies are currently active. The match schedule and result are confirmed on bo3.gg, which serves as the primary data source for settlement [1]. With the settlement deadline approaching, the only catalyst is the final oracle confirmation, which typically occurs within minutes of the official result publication. No further announcements or schedule changes are expected, as the event has already concluded.
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #5 Group B across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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