Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump faces a 9% crowd-implied probability of resigning or being removed as President before the end of 2026, according to real-time odds on Polymarket. This contract, settled in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, reflects the market’s current assessment that permanent removal is unlikely, though not impossible. The settlement window closes on 31 December 2026, with any formal announcement of resignation or removal immediately resolving the market to “Yes”.

Historically, impeachment without conviction has been the norm in recent U.S. politics. Trump was impeached twice in his first term but never removed, as Senate conviction requires a two-thirds majority that Republicans have consistently blocked. Similarly, Kalshi recently estimated the probability of impeachment and removal in Trump’s second term at nearly 28.7%, yet removal remains improbable due to Republican Senate support [1][2]. This pattern suggests that while political pressure may rise, actual removal is structurally constrained.

Traders should monitor upcoming House impeachment inquiries, Senate schedules, and any invocation of the 25th Amendment. The Democrats’ majority in the House enables inquiry, but conviction remains unlikely unless Republicans lose Senate control [2]. Recent reporting notes that impeachment rules may be altered to protect Trump, further reducing removal chances [8]. Key dates include mid-term congressional sessions and potential Cabinet actions, all of which could shift the 9% probability if new developments emerge.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.