Bitcoin above 2026 on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market hinges on Bitcoin's Binance spot price at precisely noon ET on 13 June 2026, measured via the 1-minute candle close on BTC/USDT. At 100% implied probability, traders are pricing near-certainty that Bitcoin will close above the threshold specified in the title—a striking consensus that reflects either substantial confidence in Bitcoin's trajectory or the mechanics of how conditional tokens settle on Polymarket. The contract trades on Polygon via USDC, meaning positions are collateralised in stablecoin and resolved against Binance's published candle data rather than any aggregated index.

Historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin's noon ET price on any given day typically reflects intraday volatility within a 2–4% band, depending on macro conditions and Asia-Pacific session momentum. The 100% reading is unusual for a specific-time, specific-exchange resolution; such extremes often indicate either that the threshold is set substantially below current spot prices, or that liquidity in the NO side has dried up. Comparable markets on precise Bitcoin timestamps have occasionally resolved contrary to crowd expectations when flash volatility or exchange-specific order flow disrupted the anticipated close.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic announcements in the weeks prior—particularly US inflation data, Federal Reserve communications, and geopolitical developments affecting risk appetite. Bitcoin's correlation with equity futures and Treasury yields remains material; any significant repricing of rate expectations could shift intraday ranges. Binance's own operational status and any maintenance windows near the settlement time would also matter, though such disruptions are rare.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.