Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 1 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the crowd currently assigning a 0% probability to the "YES" side. This implies traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range being bet on, despite Manila’s typical July highs reaching 31°C with very high heat and humidity[1]. Historical data shows that July is part of the wet season, when average temperatures range between 26°C and 31°C, cooler than the dry season’s peak in March and April[2]. Even during dangerous heat events, such as the recent forecast where Metro Manila’s heat index hit 44°C, actual dry-bulb temperatures in Pasay City near NAIA reached 35.0°C, suggesting the airport rarely exceeds 35°C under normal conditions[3][6].

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s daily weather bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time updates for NAIA, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or rainfall could suppress peak temperatures below the threshold. The wet season’s heaviest rainfall occurs in July and August, which often limits daytime highs[2]. A recent PAGASA forecast highlighted extreme heat risks across Luzon, yet NAIA’s recorded dry-bulb temperature remained at 35.0°C, reinforcing that the airport’s maximums are constrained by its coastal location and seasonal moisture[3][6]. On-chain, the contract settles in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, meaning liquidity and price movements will reflect new temperature data as it emerges. With the settlement window ending 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z, any unforecasted rainstorm before noon could be the decisive catalyst.

The market’s 0% YES probability likely stems from the expectation that temperatures will stay within the 26–31°C band, not exceed it. Given that July’s warmest day historically falls on 2 July at 30°C, and the coldest on 5 July at 19.4°C, the 1 July peak is unlikely to breach higher thresholds[4]. Recent heat index alerts confirm dangerous conditions, but actual airport temperatures remain moderate due to humidity and rainfall[3]. For a Polymarket user, this contract offers a clear on-ramp to weather-based trading, with USDC settlements and Polygon’s low fees enabling efficient position adjustments as Wunderground data updates. The key is watching PAGASA’s hourly forecasts for NAIA, where even minor cloud increases could keep highs below 32°C.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.