Highest temperature in Beijing on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport will determine the outcome of a conditional token market priced today at 0% for any range above 32°C. Polymarket currently assigns 99.9% probability to the 35°C range, while lower brackets like 28°C or 29°C sit below 1%, reflecting an on-chain consensus that extreme heat is virtually certain. Traders using USDC on Polygon are betting on Wunderground’s official daily high, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 9 July 2026.

Historical patterns for early July in Beijing show daily highs averaging around 88°F (31.1°C), rarely dipping below 78°F (25.6°C) or exceeding 96°F (35.6°C), with the peak average occurring on 17 July [4]. Recent data from late June to early July 2026 recorded a high of 95.8°F (35.4°C) on 3 July, confirming that 35°C is already within the observed range for this year [3]. The 32°C threshold, priced at 31% in a similar July 9 market on Lines.com, appears conservative given the current heatwave context [1].

Traders should monitor the Nanjiao observatory’s real-time reports, which recently recorded temperatures above 40°C (104°F) in southern Beijing during July’s hottest month on record [7]. No official weather announcements are scheduled for 9 July, but the China Meteorological Administration’s weekly heatwave bulletin, published every Monday, may influence conditional token liquidity if it confirms sustained high temperatures [8]. The market’s dependency on Wunderground’s data feed means any delay in updates could temporarily widen bid-ask spreads, though the underlying event remains unaffected.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.