Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Tokyo Haneda Airport maximum for 7 July at a **0% YES** probability, so the contract is effectively treating an outcome in the market’s target temperature band as implausible in dollar terms on Polygon, settled through USDC and conditional tokens. The event itself is straightforward: the market resolves off the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on that calendar day, with the result taken from Wunderground’s daily history page.

That zero price sits against a very warm seasonal baseline. AccuWeather’s July outlook for Haneda shows daily highs mostly between 79°F and 89°F, with an average July high of 87°F, while the Japan Meteorological Agency’s Tokyo forecast page puts the daily normal maximum at 29.2°C. In other words, summer heat is the default setting, and the market is really about whether the day’s peak lands in the exact range being traded rather than whether Tokyo is hot at all. Similar temperature markets on the same venue typically trade off small shifts around the seasonal norm, not dramatic weather shocks.

The main catalysts are the actual Tokyo forecast updates, especially whether a typhoon, rain band, or persistent cloud cover suppresses the daytime high before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. JMA issues Tokyo forecasts and normal-temperature context, and airline weather notices indicate that weather disruptions can matter around Haneda even if they do not determine the settlement source. Traders should watch the evolving forecast for the airport itself, because the contract resolves from that specific station reading rather than broader Tokyo averages.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.