Highest temperature in Taipei on June 2?

Market context

On 2 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges in Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% probability on Polymarket, suggesting either minimal liquidity or that traders have not yet positioned ahead of this specific date. Settlement will depend on historical temperature data from Wunderground, with the contract resolving to whichever range captures the actual daily maximum.

Taipei's June weather patterns show consistent heat and humidity. Historical data from Songshan Airport indicates June highs typically range between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The 0% pricing across all brackets is unusual given that June temperatures in Taipei are predictable within established bounds; comparable weather markets on Polymarket generally show distributed probabilities across plausible ranges rather than uniform zeros. This suggests the market may lack sufficient trading volume or that conditional token mechanics on Polygon have not yet attracted weather traders to this particular contract.

Traders monitoring this market should track Taiwan's meteorological forecasts as June approaches, particularly any alerts from the Central Weather Administration regarding heat waves or monsoon patterns. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 2 June, giving traders a narrow window to react to actual conditions. Recent tropical activity in the Western Pacific can influence Taiwan's weather systems; any significant storm systems or pressure anomalies in late May would warrant attention before final positioning.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on June 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.