Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4?

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Market context

On 4 June 2026, Shanghai's highest temperature will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured at Pudong International Airport Station. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Wunderground, which archives daily temperature records for this specific monitoring point. Polymarket currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% YES, reflecting the market's nascent state rather than any meteorological consensus—typical for weather contracts months in advance where conditional token liquidity remains sparse and traders have not yet positioned.

Shanghai's June climate is consistently warm and humid, with historical data showing daily highs typically ranging from 28°C to 32°C during early summer. The 2025 June average high was approximately 30°C, whilst 2024 recorded peaks near 33°C on several dates. These precedents suggest the eventual settlement will likely cluster in the 28–34°C band, though extreme heat events pushing above 35°C occur roughly once per decade during this period. Current zero probability across all brackets indicates minimal on-chain activity rather than forecaster conviction about temperature bounds.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration seasonal forecasts, typically released in May, which provide three-month outlooks for regional temperature anomalies. La Niña or El Niño conditions influence East Asian summer patterns materially. Additionally, any unusual atmospheric circulation patterns reported in late May—such as early monsoon onset or blocking high-pressure systems—would shift probability distributions. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 4 June, requiring resolution within hours of the airport station's final daily reading.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.