Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and recorded in degrees Celsius. The Polymarket contract currently prices this outcome at 0% across all temperature bands, reflecting either extreme illiquidity or a technical settlement issue rather than genuine market conviction. Traders holding USDC on Polygon can access conditional tokens representing specific temperature ranges, though the absence of meaningful price discovery suggests minimal trading activity at present.

Historical June temperatures in Seoul cluster between 22°C and 28°C for daily highs, with occasional spikes to 30°C during early heat waves. The 2023 and 2024 records for early June show typical ranges of 24–27°C, providing a baseline for evaluating which temperature bands should command non-zero probabilities. The current 0% pricing across all outcomes indicates the market has not yet attracted sufficient participants to establish realistic odds, making this contract unsuitable for serious directional trading until liquidity improves.

Traders should monitor Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late May 2026, which typically provide reliable ten-day outlooks for Seoul's weather patterns. Any significant atmospheric systems—monsoon onset, high-pressure ridges, or tropical cyclone activity—would shift temperature expectations materially. Settlement depends on Wunderground's historical data for Incheon, which occasionally requires verification against KMA official records if discrepancies emerge. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 4 June, allowing only same-day resolution based on recorded highs.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.