Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today with the "26°C" range as the frontrunner at 37%, while "27°C" sits close behind at 33%, leaving the "YES" outcome for higher ranges at a current crowd-implied probability of 0%. On-chain, these conditional tokens trade on Polygon using USDC, meaning liquidity flows directly into the specific temperature brackets rather than a binary win-loss structure.

Historical patterns frame how to read this current probability distribution. June in Seoul typically sees daily highs climbing from 77°F to 81°F, rarely dropping below 68°F or exceeding 87°F, with solar energy gradually decreasing by 0.5 kWh throughout the month[2]. Recent data shows the highest temperature recorded in Seoul this period was 91°F on 19 June 2026, just days before the settlement date[4]. Furthermore, South Korea recorded its hottest average June temperature since 1973 last year, averaging 22.9°C, suggesting a trend of intensifying heat that traders must weigh against the market's current 0% pricing for extreme highs[5].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather schedules and any official announcements regarding heatwaves in the Gangwon and Seoul regions, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature spikes. The recent all-time heat record of 41.0°C set in Hongcheon demonstrates the region's capacity for extreme temperatures, even if that specific location is not the settlement point[3]. With the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC on 25 June, the immediate forecast from AccuWeather, which predicts daily highs ranging from 78° to 91° for June 2026, remains the critical dependency for price discovery[7]. Any deviation from these projected highs could trigger a rapid re-pricing of the conditional tokens on the USDC market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.