Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

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Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 10 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, the official weather station for the metropolitan area. The Polymarket contract currently trades at 0% across all temperature bands, reflecting either illiquidity or extreme confidence that settlement will occur outside the listed ranges. Traders holding USDC on Polygon can enter positions in conditional tokens tied to specific temperature brackets, with payouts determined by Wunderground's historical data for that date.

June in Seoul typically sees daily highs between 26–28°C as the city transitions into early summer, though heat waves occasionally push readings above 30°C. Historical precedent matters here: on 10 June 2023, the high reached 24°C; on 10 June 2022, it was 27°C. The 0% pricing suggests either that all listed temperature bands fall outside realistic bounds for that date, or that market participants have not yet engaged with this contract. Traders should verify which specific temperature ranges the market offers before committing capital, as the absence of bids across all options indicates potential settlement ambiguity.

The South Korean Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal forecasts in late May that typically refine expectations for early June weather patterns. La Niña or El Niño conditions influence Pacific weather systems affecting the Korean peninsula, though their impact on a single day remains difficult to predict months in advance. Traders should monitor any issued heat advisories or unusual pressure systems in late May 2026, as these would signal whether June 10 might deviate from the 26–28°C seasonal norm.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.