Highest temperature in London on June 6?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets, suggesting either extreme uncertainty among traders or a technical pricing anomaly—a common occurrence early in weather markets where liquidity remains thin and conditional token mechanics on Polygon haven't yet attracted sufficient volume to establish meaningful odds. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data for that specific station, making the resolution source both transparent and immutable once the day concludes.

London's June temperatures have historically clustered between 18°C and 24°C, with extremes rare but not unprecedented. The Met Office records show that June highs in the capital have occasionally reached 28°C or above during heatwaves, most notably in 2022 when temperatures exceeded 30°C across southern England. The 0% pricing across all brackets suggests traders may be waiting for seasonal forecasts or simply haven't yet committed USDC liquidity to establish baseline probabilities. Historical volatility in early-season weather markets often reflects genuine forecasting difficulty rather than market dysfunction.

Traders should monitor the UK Met Office's extended forecast as May 2026 progresses, particularly any alerts regarding high-pressure systems or Atlantic weather patterns that could drive anomalous warmth into early June. The resolution window closes at 12:00 UTC on 6 June, meaning afternoon temperatures—typically the day's peak—will determine the outcome. Any significant weather warnings issued in the weeks prior would likely trigger initial trading activity and shift the currently flat probability distribution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.