Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0%, meaning traders are assigning negligible probability to any specific temperature range resolving true. The settlement hinges on the Observatory's published "Absolute Daily Max" figure, recorded to one decimal place, with resolution delayed until official data appears in their Daily Extract archive.

Hong Kong's May climate sits at the threshold between spring and early summer. Historical data shows late May temperatures typically peak between 28–32°C, with occasional excursions toward 33–34°C during heat waves. The 0% pricing across all ranges suggests either extreme illiquidity in this contract or a technical issue preventing normal price discovery. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket for major cities often show distributed probabilities across multiple temperature bands rather than complete consensus at zero, indicating traders may be waiting for deeper liquidity before committing capital.

The Hong Kong Observatory updates its climate database on a fixed schedule following each calendar month's close. Traders should monitor the Observatory's website for publication of May 2026 data, typically released within weeks of month-end. No scheduled announcements or external catalysts directly influence this measurement—the outcome depends entirely on actual atmospheric conditions and the Observatory's standard recording methodology. Settlement cannot occur until the official figure is published and verified.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.