Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?

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Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. Polymarket currently prices all temperature brackets at 0%, reflecting either incomplete market formation or a technical settlement lag. The resolution mechanism pulls directly from Wunderground's historical data for that specific station and date, converting between Celsius and Fahrenheit via the platform's settings toggle. Traders settling positions will receive conditional tokens redeemable in USDC on Polygon once the actual recorded high is published and verified against the source.

Guangzhou's June climate sits firmly within its pre-monsoon transition period, with historical highs typically ranging between 32–35°C. The city experienced a 34.8°C peak on 4 June 2023 and 33.2°C on 4 June 2024, establishing a narrow band of precedent. Seasonal patterns show June temperatures climbing steadily toward the summer peak, though occasional cooler days occur when frontal systems push southward from central China. These historical ranges provide the empirical floor for assessing which temperature brackets hold genuine probability mass versus those priced at zero due to market incompleteness.

The primary catalyst affecting June temperatures will be the timing and intensity of the South China Sea monsoon onset, typically occurring between mid-May and early June. China's Meteorological Administration issues seasonal forecasts in April and May that traders should monitor for any deviation from the 30-year normal. Real-time atmospheric conditions—including tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific and upper-level ridge positioning—will determine whether 4 June 2026 tracks toward the cooler or warmer end of the historical distribution.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.