Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES, indicating the contract has not yet attracted meaningful liquidity or that traders are awaiting clearer resolution mechanics. Settlement hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary—a distinction that matters when automated systems and manual readings diverge, which occurs occasionally during extreme heat events.

Chongqing's August temperatures historically cluster between 35–39°C, with occasional peaks above 40°C during heat waves. The city experienced 44.9°C in August 2022, one of China's highest reliably recorded temperatures. August 2023 saw sustained highs in the 37–39°C range across the region. These precedents suggest the market's current zero probability reflects either incomplete outcome definition in traders' minds or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Historical volatility in Chongqing's summer extremes—driven by its geography in the Yangtze River basin and urban heat island effects—means outcomes spanning 35–45°C remain plausible.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any alerts for regional heat waves. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during late July can suppress temperatures or drive sudden spikes depending on storm track. The specific resolution source dependency on Weather Underground's Jiangbei station data means localised sensor issues or maintenance windows could affect settlement, making direct station status checks valuable before the 12:00 UTC cutoff.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.