Dublin-Central By-Election Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Dublin Central by-election at 0% YES, so the contract is effectively being treated as unavailable or unresolved at the moment rather than assigning any live winning chance to a candidate. If you buy the contract, you are doing so in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, so the price should be read as the market’s current implied probability of the named candidate winning the eventual Dáil seat, not as a poll or a forecast of turnout.

The best comparators are recent Irish constituency by-elections and the way late candidate entry can redraw the board. Coverage from Irish Election Projections has already pointed to Fianna Fáil’s Mary Fitzpatrick as a plausible frontrunner, while the Irish Examiner reported substantial trading around Gerry Hutch and Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis on Polymarket. That mix matters: in smaller contests, name recognition, local organisation and transfer patterns can matter more than national polling, and market prices can move sharply once the ballot paper is finalised.

Traders should watch for the writ being issued, the nomination deadline, confirmed candidate lists and any polling or canvassing updates from the main parties. Recent reporting in the Irish Examiner and Irish Times also shows that the market has been distorted at times by large, unusual trades, so liquidity and price quality may shift quickly around news events rather than move smoothly. The key dependency is timing: if the by-election is delayed, or if results are not definitively known by the market’s cut-off, settlement falls to Other.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.