World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **4% YES**, so the market is pricing a low but non-trivial chance that the 2026 FIFA World Cup produces at least the specified number of missed or saved spot-kicks in normal time, stoppage time or extra time. Settlement is on USDC via Polygon, with the usual conditional-token structure meaning the position pays only if official match data for completed games shows the threshold was reached.[1]

That 4% sits against a history where *individual* World Cup penalty misses are rare but highly visible. FIFA notes that several national teams have only a handful of scored penalties across tournament history, while Guinness World Records records the most missed by one player in World Cup play, excluding shootouts, at just two. At the same time, modern tournaments can still generate multiple penalty events, as the 2026 edition has already produced early spot-kick goals and saves in the opening phase, which is the kind of variance that can move a low-probability market quickly.[2][6][7]

For traders, the key catalysts are the match schedule, referee decisions, and whether the expanded 48-team format increases the number of knockout and group-stage fixtures enough to create more penalty opportunities before the 20 July 2026 settlement window closes. Penalties in shootouts do not count, so late knockout matches only matter if there is a spot-kick in regulation or extra time and it is saved or missed. Recent tournament coverage has also highlighted repeat takers such as Harry Kane and Lionel Messi, whose histories show that penalties at World Cups can be concentrated among a small number of players.[3][5][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.