Bitcoin price on June 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's noon ET price on 1 June 2026 will be determined by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The 0% implied probability currently priced on Polymarket reflects the market's assessment that Bitcoin will trade outside all available bracket ranges at that moment—a statement about extreme price movement or data unavailability rather than a directional forecast. On Polygon-settled conditional tokens, this contract carries minimal liquidity given the distant settlement window and narrow resolution criteria tied to a single exchange's candle data.

Historical precedent suggests such extreme probabilities often reflect technical rather than fundamental factors. Bitcoin's intraday volatility rarely produces noon closes that fall entirely outside reasonable bracket ranges; the 0% pricing likely indicates either sparse liquidity in the market itself or traders' collective view that the resolution mechanism's specificity (exact candle, exact timezone, exact exchange) makes bracketed outcomes highly probable by default. Similar weekly Bitcoin price contracts on Polymarket typically see broader probability distributions across multiple brackets, even for distant settlement dates.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic calendar events scheduled for late May 2026—Federal Reserve communications, inflation data, and major central bank decisions historically drive intraday volatility. Bitcoin's correlation with equities and risk sentiment remains material; any significant market dislocation in the fortnight before settlement could shift bracket probabilities substantially. The Binance data feed's reliability is also relevant; exchange outages or unusual trading halts would affect resolution mechanics.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.