Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's lowest temperature in degrees Celsius. Polymarket currently prices all outcome ranges at 0%, reflecting either insufficient liquidity or trader uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, though actual resolution depends on when the Observatory publishes its "Daily Extract" data—typically available within 24 hours of the observation period ending.

Hong Kong's July temperatures are remarkably consistent. Historical data from the Observatory shows absolute daily minima in mid-July cluster between 25.5°C and 27.5°C, with the long-term average around 26°C. Anomalously low readings below 24°C are exceptionally rare in July; the last occurrence was 2009. This seasonal stability means the market's current 0% pricing likely reflects sparse order flow rather than genuine doubt about whether a reading will fall within normal ranges. Traders should examine which specific temperature bands the market offers—the resolution hinges on whether the Observatory records, for instance, 25.0–25.9°C versus 26.0–26.9°C.

Catalysts remain limited for a single-day weather event eleven months forward. The Hong Kong Observatory updates its climate archives monthly, so traders cannot anticipate surprises from preliminary data. Tropical cyclone activity in July could theoretically suppress temperatures, though such systems are tracked weeks in advance. The key dependency is technical: conditional token settlement on Polygon requires the Observatory's published figure to match a specific range, and any ambiguity in rounding or measurement methodology could delay resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.