Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Hong Kong minimum-temperature contract at **0% YES**, which means the market currently assigns no visible chance that the day’s lowest reading will land in the contract’s YES range. On-chain, that view is expressed through USDC-funded conditional tokens on Polygon, so the practical question for traders is whether the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)” for 11 August 2026 ends up inside any of the listed bands once the daily extract is published.

The historical frame is straightforward: Hong Kong’s August climate is usually hot and humid, with the Observatory’s 1991–2020 normals showing an average minimum of **26.7°C** on 11 August and a mean of **28.7°C** for the day. Recent weather has also been warm, with current past-weather snapshots showing overnight and early-morning temperatures around **29–32°C** in the days immediately before the contract date, while broader August climatology typically clusters minimums in the high 20s rather than at the lower edges of the range. That makes a low-end outcome a comparatively thin tail unless there is an unusual rain band, cloud cover, or a stronger-than-expected northerly change.

A trader watching this market should focus on the Observatory’s publication cadence and the final data extract, not the live forecast alone. The settlement source is the Hong Kong Observatory’s climate page, and the market cannot resolve until the daily extract for 11 August is finalised; any later revision to the published figure would matter only if it appears in that final source. The immediate dependency is whether the overnight minimum is locked in before the reporting window closes, with the practical trading trigger being the first finalised Observatory entry rather than model guidance from third-party weather sites.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.