Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, Wuhan will record a daily high temperature at Tianhe International Airport Station. The market currently prices at 0% YES across all temperature ranges, reflecting settlement uncertainty rather than meteorological impossibility—Wuhan's July climate reliably produces measurable highs well above freezing. Resolution depends on Wunderground's historical weather database pulling the station's recorded maximum for that specific date, with traders settling conditional tokens on USDC via Polygon once the data is confirmed.

Wuhan's July temperatures historically cluster between 32–38°C, with extremes reaching 40°C during heat waves. The city sits in the Yangtze River valley, where summer monsoon patterns and urban heat effects drive consistent high temperatures. Comparable July days from 2015–2024 show virtually no variance in whether a measurable high occurs—the question is which range it falls into. The 0% pricing likely reflects low liquidity or technical issues with market creation rather than genuine doubt that a temperature will be recorded.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks for major cities. Any unusual weather systems—tropical cyclones tracking inland or anomalous cold fronts—would shift probability distributions across temperature bands. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 19 July, giving traders a narrow window after Wunderground updates its historical records, usually within hours of midnight local time in Wuhan.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.