Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan will experience peak summer heat on 11 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Tianhe International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at zero probability on Polymarket, reflecting either a technical artefact or genuine uncertainty about whether sufficient liquidity will develop before the settlement window closes on 11 August at 12:00 UTC. Traders are pricing conditional tokens (YES/NO pairs on USDC via Polygon) against historical August patterns in this central Chinese city, where temperatures routinely exceed 35°C during the summer monsoon season.

Wuhan's August climate presents a consistent baseline for comparison. Over the past decade, daily highs in early August have ranged from 33°C to 38°C, with 2013 recording 40.3°C as an extreme outlier. The city's location in the Yangtze River valley creates a "furnace effect" during summer, making it one of China's hottest urban centres. Current meteorological forecasts for summer 2026 remain unavailable, but seasonal patterns suggest temperatures between 35°C and 37°C are most probable, with lower ranges (below 33°C) unlikely and extreme heat (above 39°C) historically rare but not unprecedented.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration updates and any El Niño or La Niña developments that could influence regional summer patterns. The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures creates a specific technical dependency—the station's hourly data recording must be complete and accessible through the settlement window. Any disruption to Tianhe Airport's weather station or data transmission could complicate resolution, though this remains a secondary consideration against the primary task of forecasting actual atmospheric conditions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.