Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25?

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Market context

On 25 May 2026, Wellington International Airport will record a maximum temperature in Celsius, with traders on Polymarket currently pricing all temperature ranges at 0% probability across the board. This settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC once the day's readings are finalised. The contract uses conditional tokens on Polygon, denominated in USDC, allowing traders to hedge against or speculate on Wellington's thermal range without exposure to traditional weather derivatives.

Wellington's May temperatures typically range between 8–14°C, reflecting the Southern Hemisphere's autumn conditions. Historical data from the past five years shows maximum temperatures on 25 May clustering around 10–12°C, with occasional outliers reaching 15°C during warmer years. The 0% crowd pricing suggests either minimal trading volume on this particular date or genuine uncertainty about which temperature bracket will resolve, rather than conviction that extreme heat is impossible. May is Wellington's coolest month after June, making temperatures above 18°C exceptionally rare on this date.

Traders monitoring this contract should track MetService and NIWA forecasts released in early May 2026, as these will provide the first substantive signals about atmospheric patterns approaching the settlement date. Anomalous weather systems—such as a late-season warm front pushing north from the Tasman Sea—could shift outcomes materially. The lack of current probability distribution suggests the market awaits clearer meteorological signals before meaningful capital deploys to any single temperature band.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.