Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, Wellington International Airport will record a daily maximum temperature, and this market divides that outcome into discrete ranges in Celsius. Polymarket currently prices all temperature bands at zero, reflecting the settlement window's distance and the inherent difficulty in pricing weather events nearly two years forward. The contract will resolve using historical data from Weather Underground's Wellington station records, making the resolution mechanism straightforward once the date arrives.

Wellington's winter temperatures in early June typically range between 8 and 13 degrees Celsius, though the city's exposed coastal location and variable weather patterns mean daily highs can deviate significantly from seasonal norms. Historical data from the past decade shows June extremes spanning from below 5 degrees during cold southerly outbreaks to occasional 16-degree days during mild spells. The 0% crowd probability reflects rational uncertainty rather than confidence in any particular outcome; pricing weather events this far ahead remains speculative without meaningful meteorological signals.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch seasonal forecasting updates from New Zealand's MetService, particularly their monthly outlooks released in May 2026, which may indicate whether June will trend warmer or cooler than normal. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through 2025 and early 2026 could influence broader Southern Hemisphere weather patterns. The actual resolution depends entirely on atmospheric conditions on that specific date; no scheduled events or announcements will directly trigger the outcome, making this a pure weather-dependent contract where historical volatility and long-range climate signals provide the only meaningful analytical framework.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.