Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 25 June 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability of a "YES" resolution sitting at 0%. This near-zero pricing reflects the harsh reality of Wellington’s June climate, where average daily highs drop from 57°F to 54°F and overcast conditions persist for roughly 42% of the month[4]. Historical data shows that June temperatures rarely exceed 19°C, a threshold that MetService NZ recently confirmed as a record-breaking maximum for the month in Wellington, yet still far below the thresholds that would trigger a positive outcome in this specific contract[5].

For traders monitoring this on-chain contract, which settles via USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, the primary catalyst is the evolving weather forecast for the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 25 June. The immediate weather snapshot indicates strong south-south-westerly winds at 24 mph, light rain, and a high of just 12°C, making a significant temperature spike unlikely under current conditions[2]. Traders should watch for any sudden shifts in wind direction or pressure systems, as Wellington’s weather is notoriously volatile; however, the prevailing cool, wet pattern suggests the market’s 0% probability is well-founded based on the immediate meteorological dependencies[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.