Highest temperature in Wellington on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record its highest temperature on 9 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 65% chance that this peak reaches 11°C[1]. This figure sits at the climatological centre of Wellington’s July range, where average highs typically hover around 14°C (54°F) and lows near 47°F[5]. Historical data shows July is the coldest month for the region, yet temperatures rarely drop below 5°C, making the current 0% YES probability for “5°C or below” statistically sound[1][5]. The adjacent outcome of 10°C holds an 18% probability, reflecting the market’s view that temperatures will stay within a narrow, cool band rather than plunge to freezing extremes[1].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground and BBC Weather, which currently forecast strong winds and rain with a high of 35°F (19°C) for Thursday 9 July[2]. The settlement depends entirely on the official record from the Wellington Intl Airport Station, accessible via Wunderground’s daily history page, where the gear icon toggles between Fahrenheit and Celsius[1]. Recent anomalies, such as Wellington’s summer reaching only one day above 25°C instead of the typical five, suggest cooler-than-average conditions may persist into July[6]. No official announcements are expected, but the on-chain mechanics on Polygon—using USDC and conditional tokens—will resolve automatically once the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes on 9 July 2026[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.