Highest temperature in Wellington on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 8 July 2026 is currently priced at 0% probability for the "YES" outcome on Polymarket, reflecting a market consensus that the day will not reach the specific threshold in question. This contract, settled in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, treats the underlying weather event as a binary certainty based on Wunderground’s official daily maximum.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability with clarity: July is Wellington’s coldest month, with average highs hovering around 12–14°C (54°F) and frequent rain suppressing peaks [5][2]. Comparable markets, such as the July 6 high-temp contract which settled at 13°C with 51% confidence, show that even slight deviations from the mean are coin flips, whereas the current threshold likely exceeds plausible July maxima by several degrees [3].

Traders should monitor real-time meteorological updates for sudden shifts, particularly the persistent south-south-westerly winds and heavy rain currently affecting the airport, which keep temperatures low [2][9]. While no specific heatwave announcements are active for Wellington, the broader New Zealand weather schedule remains dependent on Pacific pressure systems; any unexpected northerly surge would be the primary catalyst to watch, though current forecasts suggest continued cool, wet conditions [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on July 8? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.