Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the contract in **USDC on Polygon**, with the outcome determined by the highest temperature recorded at Wellington Intl Airport on 31 July 2026. The market is sitting at **0% YES**, which implies the order book is assigning no chance to a qualifying reading at all, even though the settlement source is a single official daily high on Wunderground rather than a broad seasonal average.

That zero price is at odds with the normal winter profile for Wellington, where July highs are usually in the low teens Celsius and even the daily forecast for Friday 31 July shows a **53°F** high with patchy rain nearby, while BBC’s current station observation is around **10°C** and AccuWeather’s July history page points to average highs near **53°F** for the date.[1][2][3] Comparable July climate data for Wellington also suggests a day-to-day range that routinely stays well above freezing, so the market is effectively discounting an ordinary winter afternoon rather than an extreme cold snap.[7][12][19]

For traders, the main catalysts are the late-day synoptic changes that can move an airport high by several degrees: wind shifts, cloud breaks, and rain timing matter more than the monthly average. Current advisories point to strong northerlies and gusty conditions through the night into Friday morning, with forecast rain also present in the day-ahead outlook, which could cap the maximum if cloud and showers persist or lift it if sunshine arrives after the morning system passes.[4][6] Because settlement uses the Wellington Intl Airport Station reading on Wunderground, the relevant check is the airport’s recorded daily high, not city-centre conditions or a model forecast, so the final print near the 12:00 UTC settlement window is what matters most.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.