Highest temperature in Wellington on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract pinned at **0% YES**, even though the underlying event is simply whether Wellington’s recorded high on 9 August lands in the relevant Celsius band at Wellington Intl Airport. Settlement is in **USDC on Polygon** through conditional tokens, so the market price is a direct view on how participants are valuing that temperature outcome, not a forecast of the city’s general weather.

For context, Wellington in August is usually a cool, tightly bounded market for temperature traders. Comparable forecasts cluster around the low teens Celsius: AccuWeather’s daily outlook shows a high of 59°F with rain and drizzle in the morning before some clearing, while Wunderground’s hourly page points to a high near 57°F and a damp start that turns sunnier later[2][10]. Other local forecast pages similarly place the day around 12°C to 13°C, with winds and showers doing more to shape the session than any large thermal swing[4][5][9][11]. That matters because this market resolves off the **highest observed temperature** in the Daily Observations table, so an intraday spike is more important than the summary high on a forecast page.

The main catalysts are the live station observations through the day, plus any change in the morning rain-and-drizzle pattern that could delay warming at the airport site[10][11]. Traders should also watch for southerly or northerly wind shifts, since Wellington’s exposed coastal position can cap or lift the peak quickly; the forecast mix here is broadly consistent with a modest top-end around the low teens Celsius rather than a warm surge[5][9][18]. Because the settlement window ends at 12:00:00Z, the relevant question for holders is whether the airport’s recorded maximum is locked in before that cut-off, not whether the afternoon feels milder later on.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.