Highest temperature in Wellington on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract pinned at **0% YES** today, which means the market is effectively saying the Wellington Intl Airport Station is not expected to print a daily high that lands in the YES range on 5 August 2026. The actual settlement, however, will be based on the highest temperature recorded at that station on the day, in Celsius, as published by Wunderground for Wellington Intl Airport Station, with the outcome determined by which temperature band contains that maximum reading. In practice, traders are paying USDC on Polygon for a conditional token that only resolves once the airport’s observed high is known, so the key input is the final station observation rather than a citywide forecast headline.

That near-zero price sits against a winter climatology that is usually fairly tight in Wellington. Independent monthly guides cluster August highs around **9°C to 12°C**, with some sources describing the month as stable and cool, and the Met Office’s Wellington forecast currently showing single-digit to low-double-digit temperatures alongside cloud, rain risk and gusty winds[3][6][7][8]. BBC Weather’s live observation for Wellington/Intl has also shown a mild but unsettled setup, with about **10°C**, high humidity and northerly wind[2]. For a banded temperature market, that matters because the high is often constrained by cloud cover, onshore flow and passing rain, leaving little room for a surprise jump into a warmer bracket.

The main catalysts are the airport’s actual day-of weather sequence and any last-minute changes in wind, cloud and rain timing, rather than scheduled announcements. Traders should watch MetService and airport-observation updates through the day, but settlement will ultimately track the Wunderground station history page for the airport, so even a brief clearing or a late-afternoon burst of sun can matter if it lifts the daily maximum. In a market priced at 0%, the practical question is whether the observed high stays inside the heavily favoured cool-season band or pushes into the next range before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.