Highest temperature in Toronto on May 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 30 May 2026, Toronto Pearson International Airport will record a daily high temperature, and Polymarket currently prices all outcome ranges at 0% YES, meaning the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity or trader conviction to establish meaningful odds across any temperature band. This settlement hinges on a single data point from Wunderground's historical records for that specific date, with resolution occurring at midday UTC on the settlement window close.

Toronto's late May climate typically ranges between 18–24°C, though extremes do occur. Historical data from Environment and Climate Change Canada shows that May 30 has seen highs as low as 12°C (1992) and as high as 31°C (2012), with a median closer to 20°C. The 2012 heat event remains the most recent outlier on record for this date, suggesting that whilst sub-20°C outcomes dominate the distribution, traders pricing ranges above 28°C should account for the tail risk demonstrated by that precedent.

Spring weather patterns across the Great Lakes region remain sensitive to jet stream positioning and Atlantic moisture transport, both of which shift substantially week-to-week. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts, typically issued 10–14 days before May 30, will provide the first actionable signal for traders; any early indication of a high-pressure ridge settling over Ontario would favour warmer ranges, whilst a trough passage would suppress highs. Traders should monitor Environment Canada's seasonal outlooks released in April 2026 for any signals of anomalous warmth heading into late spring.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.