Highest temperature in Toronto on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, Toronto Pearson International Airport will record a daily high temperature in Celsius. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, meaning traders are assigning negligible probability to any specific temperature range materialising—a reflection of the market's distance from settlement and the inherent difficulty in pricing weather outcomes nine months forward. The resolution will depend on official data from Wunderground's historical records for that single day, with settlement occurring at noon UTC once the temperature is finalised.

Toronto's May climate sits at the threshold between spring and early summer, with historical highs typically ranging between 20°C and 28°C during the final week of the month. The 0% pricing suggests either extreme confidence in a particular range or, more likely, insufficient liquidity and trader participation to establish meaningful odds across the available temperature bands. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket show similar flat pricing for events beyond six months, as the signal-to-noise ratio in long-range forecasts remains poor and conditional token holders face extended carry costs.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal climate patterns as May 2026 approaches and watch for any El Niño or La Niña developments that could shift North American weather patterns. Environment Canada's seasonal outlooks, typically released quarterly, will provide the most actionable data for recalibrating probabilities. As settlement approaches, standard meteorological forecasts will become available roughly two weeks beforehand, likely triggering meaningful price movement and liquidity concentration in whichever range the consensus forecast favours.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Toronto on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.