Highest temperature in Toronto on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 9 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability for a YES result sitting at 0%. On Polymarket, the contract is priced such that the frontrunner outcome is 29°C, assigned a 100% implied probability, while 30°C trails at just 1%. This pricing reflects the on-chain mechanics of USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens are used to settle the temperature range once the Wunderground resolution source confirms the daily high.

Historical data frames this probability sharply, as July at Pearson typically sees daily highs around 79°F (26°C), rarely exceeding 89°F (32°C) [3]. However, extreme heat events have broken records recently; Environment and Climate Change Canada recorded 35.8°C at Pearson in a past heat warning, marking the hottest temperature since 2016 [6][7]. Such outliers suggest that while 29°C is the market consensus, the possibility of a significant spike remains non-zero, though the current 0% YES probability implies traders view a deviation from the 29°C range as highly unlikely.

Traders should monitor Environment Canada’s heat warnings and daily weather schedules, as heavy rain was forecast for the afternoon and evening of 9 July, potentially suppressing temperatures to a maximum of 24°C [5]. Recent heat waves in neighbouring regions, such as LaGuardia Airport’s record midnight temperature of 34.4°C in early July 2026, highlight the volatility of regional weather patterns [8]. The resolution depends entirely on the Wunderground data for the highest temperature recorded at all times on that day, making real-time weather updates the critical catalyst for any shift in implied probabilities.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Toronto on July 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.