Highest temperature in Toronto on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Toronto Pearson International Airport is expected to face extreme heat on 16 July 2026, with historical data showing the city frequently breaching 30°C during mid-summer peaks. Last year, on 16 July 2025, an official extreme heat warning was issued for the Greater Toronto Area, accompanied by a public health advisory and air quality alert due to soaring temperatures [1]. Environment Canada recorded a new temperature record for the region during that period, underscoring the volatility of July heatwaves in southern Ontario [2]. This context explains why the market currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, suggesting traders believe the specific temperature range in question is statistically improbable despite the region’s known heat trends.

Traders monitoring this on-chain contract on Polymarket should watch Environment Canada’s daily weather forecasts and any emerging heatwave announcements for the Greater Toronto Area as the settlement window approaches. The market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, sourced from Wunderground’s historical daily data, meaning real-time meteorological updates will directly influence conditional token valuations [1]. Since the contract settles in USDC on the Polygon network, liquidity and price movements will react swiftly to official temperature declarations. With the settlement deadline set for 2026-07-16T12:00:00Z, any deviation from forecasted highs could trigger rapid arbitrage opportunities for those holding position tokens.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.