Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, Tokyo will record a daily high temperature at Haneda Airport Station, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date. The current Polymarket pricing reflects zero demand for any temperature bracket, suggesting either minimal trading activity or genuine uncertainty about which range will resolve. USDC settlement on Polygon means traders holding conditional tokens for their chosen temperature band will need to monitor the resolution window closing at 12:00 UTC that day.

Tokyo's late May climate typically sits between 22–28°C, with occasional spikes toward 30°C during early heat waves. Historical data from May 2023 and 2024 shows daily highs clustering around 25–27°C, though the city experienced a 29°C reading on 27 May 2022. The 0% crowd probability suggests either that traders view all temperature brackets as equally likely, or that the market has attracted insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket tend to see activity concentrate around the most probable range once forecasts firm up.

The Japan Meteorological Agency publishes seasonal outlooks and weekly forecasts that typically become more precise in early May. Traders should monitor late-May weather pattern developments in April 2026, particularly any announcements regarding atmospheric pressure systems or early monsoon activity affecting the Kanto region. Haneda's coastal location means sea-surface temperatures and wind patterns from the Pacific influence daily highs, making broader East Asian weather systems a relevant tracking point for conditional token positioning.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.