Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 25?

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Market context

On 25 May 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and settled against a range of Celsius values. The Polymarket contract currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% probability across the board, reflecting either minimal liquidity or a technical lag in the interface rather than genuine market consensus. Settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific location and date, with the window closing at midday UTC.

Tokyo's late May climate sits at a seasonal inflection point. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that maximum temperatures in late May typically range between 24–28°C, with occasional spikes to 30°C during early heat waves. The 2023 and 2024 May records for the Kanto region show variability: some years see sustained warmth in the upper twenties, whilst others remain moderate. Haneda Airport, situated on reclaimed land near Tokyo Bay, experiences slightly different microclimatic conditions than central Tokyo, often running 1–2°C cooler due to maritime influence. This historical band provides the baseline against which traders should calibrate their position sizing on conditional tokens.

The relevant catalyst is the broader Pacific weather pattern developing through April and early May 2026. The Japan Meteorological Agency's monthly forecasts, typically released mid-month, will signal whether a Tibetan high-pressure system is expected to dominate the region by late May—a condition that would push temperatures toward the upper end of the range. El Niño or La Niña conditions, tracked by NOAA, also influence Japanese spring temperatures. Traders should monitor these forecasts alongside any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, which could suppress temperatures if moisture and cloud cover increase.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.