Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s official daily high on 9 July 2026 is the real-world event this market resolves, with the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station serving as the measurement point and Wunderground as the source. Polymarket prices the “30°C” outcome at 97% implied probability, while the “YES” contract for exactly 29°C sits at 31.5%, meaning the crowd sees a one-in-three chance of that precise band and a near-certainty of 30°C or higher[1][2].

Historically, early July in Tokyo routinely sees daytime highs between 32°C and 36°C, with record-breaking heat already emerging in 2026—Isesaki, 85km northwest of Tokyo, hit 40.2°C on 5 July, and Tamba city recorded 41.2°C later in the month[5][8]. These extremes suggest that a 29°C peak is highly improbable, aligning with the current 0% crowd-implied probability for the “YES” outcome on 29°C[2].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily forecasts, which on 9 July predict a Tokyo maximum of 29.6°C, and watch for any strengthening of the Pacific high-pressure system that could push temperatures toward 31°C or above[2][10]. A recent Pacific high strengthening faster than forecast could collapse the 29°C price entirely, making this a key catalyst to track before the 12:00 UTC settlement window[2]. The contract resolves on USDC via Polygon using conditional tokens, with all volume ($8,757) concentrated in the final 24 hours, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to last-minute forecast shifts[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.