Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently has this contract priced at **0% YES**, implying the market sees no chance of Tokyo Haneda Airport Station’s recorded high on 27 July 2026 landing in the settlement band. In practical terms, that means the USDC on Polygon is concentrated entirely on the “no” side unless traders decide the odds have been mispriced against a hot late-July outcome.

That 0% screen is easier to read against Tokyo’s late-July climate than against a normal day’s weather. July in Japan is typically hot enough that travel guidance focuses on heat management, with advice to carry water, cooling aids and to schedule outdoor activity early in the morning when temperatures are lower[1]. For a highest-temperature market tied to a single airport station, the key point is not the daily average but the day’s peak reading, which can still print well above what many traders mentally anchor to from a morning forecast. In other words, a zero-implied price is a claim that even the upper tail of the day’s temperature distribution is negligible.

The main catalysts are the live weather setup around Haneda and any forecast changes into the daylight hours before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. Traders typically watch the local morning and early afternoon evolution, because a warm start, clear skies and sustained sunshine are the ingredients most likely to lift the day’s maximum reading. Since the market resolves from Wunderground’s daily history for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, the relevant dependency is not a citywide average but the station-specific maximum at that source; any shift in forecast highs, cloud cover or sea-breeze timing can matter more than broad seasonal expectations.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.