Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Tokyo Haneda Airport temperature contract at **0% YES** on USDC collateral settled through Polygon conditional tokens, which means the market currently assigns no chance that the day’s recorded high lands in the contract’s YES range. The market resolves off the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on Wunderground for 24 July 2026, with the key practical issue for traders being the *day’s maximum* rather than the headline forecast at any single hour.

That zero print is best read against Tokyo’s midsummer climatology rather than as a precise call on the afternoon high. July in Tokyo is typically hot and humid, with average highs around **30°C** and frequent rain, so the city often spends much of the month in a narrow warm band rather than making sharp temperature spikes.[1] July solar input is also fairly steady, which supports persistent heat when cloud cover breaks, but it does not guarantee an extreme reading at Haneda.[2] For a venue-specific weather market, the important point is that airport observations can differ from central Tokyo because of coastal influence, wind and cloud timing.

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s forecast evolution, the timing of showers or clearing, and whether late-morning or early-afternoon sunshine arrives before the settlement window closes at **12:00 UTC**. In practical terms, the market is sensitive to a few degrees of movement in the official airport reading, especially if a short-lived warm burst appears before the cut-off. Morning conditions in Tokyo summer are often cooler than the eventual high, with hotter periods usually building towards midday and early afternoon.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.