Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 14 July 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and settled against Wunderground historical data. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% on Polymarket, suggesting either technical settlement issues or minimal liquidity across the conditional token buckets. Traders entering positions would need to bridge USDC to Polygon and select their preferred range—likely split into 5°C or 10°C bands—before the settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date.

Mid-July sits firmly within Tokyo's rainy season, when temperatures typically peak between 28°C and 34°C, though extremes above 35°C occur roughly once per decade during particularly intense heat waves. Historical records from 2010 and 2013 saw Haneda exceed 35°C during July, whilst more recent summers have remained within the 30–33°C band. The 0% pricing across all ranges suggests traders are either awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasting models or the market lacks sufficient depth to reflect genuine uncertainty.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal forecasts released in June, which typically indicate whether the Pacific high-pressure system will dominate the region during mid-July. El Niño or La Niña conditions influence summer heat patterns substantially. Additionally, any significant volcanic activity or stratospheric aerosol events in the months preceding July could suppress temperatures, though such catalysts remain speculative at this distance. Real-time weather model consensus—particularly from the GFS and ECMWF—becomes actionable only from early July onwards.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.