Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 10 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical patterns for Haneda in mid-July consistently show daily highs in the low 30s Celsius, with frequent humidity and daily rain or cloud cover [9]. Recent Met Office forecasts for the same location predict a maximum daytime temperature of 32°C, aligning with the market’s frontrunner outcome of 31°C at 38% probability [4]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for temperatures at or below 26°C reflects this thermal baseline, as summer lows in Tokyo rarely dip below 26°C overnight [1].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily weather bulletins and any extreme heat announcements, particularly given Japan’s recent record-breaking 41.2°C day in Tamba city, which signals heightened summer volatility [6]. On-chain mechanics on Polymarket utilise USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens allow precise betting on temperature brackets; volume remains thin at £3,202 for the 26°C bracket, indicating fragmented liquidity [2]. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s first published data point for 10 July 2026, so traders must watch for delays in data publication that could postpone settlement [5]. Recent analysis notes that the 30°C bracket trades at 35.5%, suggesting the market expects temperatures to hover near this threshold [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.