Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the **highest temperature in Tokyo on 6 August** as a low-probability, late-summer heat print, with shares distributed across the Celsius buckets and a current crowd view that leans below the most extreme outcomes. The contract settles in **USDC on Polygon** via conditional tokens, so the relevant question for traders is not Tokyo’s average August climate, but the single highest reading at **Tokyo Haneda Airport Station** during the settlement day, as recorded in the market’s reference source.

The historical frame is straightforward: Tokyo in August is typically hot, with monthly high-temperature norms around the low 30s Celsius, and current forecast products still point to highs near the high 20s to high 30s depending on the day and location. JMA’s August 2026 station data already show Tokyo-area highs in the mid-30s earlier in the month, while the airport station itself often runs a little cooler than inland Tokyo because of coastal influence. That makes a 0% yes price on any one bucket look less like a statement that heat is impossible and more like a sign that the market is still waiting for a live reading to concentrate around a specific range.

For catalysts, traders should watch the **day’s evolving forecast**, any late-morning sun-driven spike, and whether cloud cover, sea breeze, or showers cap the peak before the settlement window closes at **12:00 UTC**. AccuWeather’s Tokyo outlook has shown highs around **31–33°C** around this period, which is consistent with a market that can still move if the noon reading turns hotter than expected. Because resolution is tied to Wunderground’s daily history page for RJTT, the key dependency is the final reported maximum there, not headlines or city-wide averages.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.