Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **0% YES** on a Tokyo heat contract that settles to the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 2 August, with payouts routed through **USDC on Polygon** via conditional tokens. In practical terms, the market is saying the crowd assigns no chance that the day’s peak at RJTT lands in the YES bucket, so any re-pricing depends on whether the observed maximum later falls into the market’s specified temperature range, as reported by Wunderground.

For context, Tokyo’s early-August climate is usually very hot rather than exceptional: August averages sit around **31°C** for highs, with typical daytime readings near the low 30s and records that can climb much higher in extreme years. Historical Tokyo data show August has produced temperatures from the high teens to the upper 30s Celsius, which matters because a single very hot afternoon can still move the settlement outcome even if the morning starts milder. That makes a zero-probability price most sensitive to the exact bucket definitions rather than to the general expectation of summer heat.

The main catalysts are straightforward: the day’s realised maximum at Haneda, any sharp shift in cloud cover, sea-breeze effects, or rain that caps the afternoon high, and the precise Wunderground history entry used at settlement. Tokyo’s August outlooks from major weather services still show highs typically in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with daily ranges broad enough that late-morning or early-afternoon conditions can decide whether the final print lands above or below the market threshold. For traders, the key dependency is the station-specific maximum on Wunderground rather than a citywide average or forecast headline.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.